Mozambique entered the January 2026 flooding emergency under conditions of significant pre-existing humanitarian stress. Political instability following the 2024 elections, escalating violence linked to non-state armed groups, chronic food insecurity, repeated climate shocks, and structural poverty had already weakened livelihoods, services, and coping capacity across many parts of the country. This report provides a comparative area-based overview of humanitarian conditions in the provinces most affected by the January 2026 floods in Mozambique, Gaza, Sofala, Maputo Province, and Maputo City. It combines a review of pre-crisis structural vulnerability with emerging evidence of post-crisis flood impact to understand where needs are most concentrated and how existing fragilities shaped the severity of the emergency.
Before the floods, many districts were already experiencing significant stress linked to chronic food insecurity, intersectoral humanitarian needs, localised conflict exposure, and pockets of displacement. In Gaza and Sofala, several districts recorded high vulnerability scores driven largely by overlapping food insecurity and needs burdens. In Maputo Province, risk was more closely associated with structural poverty and urban or peri-urban pressures, while in Maputo City, severe data gaps limited precise comparison.
Heavy and sustained rainfall from mid-December 2025 triggered river overflows, prolonged inundation, and major infrastructure disruption across southern and central Mozambique. By late January 2026, more than 723,000 people had been reported affected nationwide.
The analysis shows that areas with elevated pre-crisis vulnerability frequently correspond to those now facing the most significant operational challenges.
Gaza Province stands out as the epicentre of the disaster, hosting the majority of affected people and the largest concentrations of displaced households in accommodation centers. Extensive road inundation across the Limpopo basin has severely constrained access, while damage to housing and public infrastructure has intensified multisectoral needs.
In Sofala, impacts are substantial but more geographically dispersed. Flooding has undermined agriculture, markets, and access to services, leading to displacement in smaller sites that require broader geographic coverage rather than large-camp management. Maputo Province presents a mixed picture. Very high levels of housing damage and major road disruption, particularly in Manhiça and Marracuene, coexist with clustered but varied accommodation arrangements, creating both high-density response hubs and numerous medium-scale service points. Within Maputo City, displacement is fragmented across many neighbourhood facilities. While flood extents are smaller than in rural basins, the density of the urban environment amplifies the consequences of infrastructure disruption and complicates coordinated assistance.
Overall, the findings indicate that the floods did not create vulnerability in isolation; rather, they intensified pre-existing weaknesses. Across affected provinces, response operations are challenged by damaged transport networks, ongoing rainfall, underrepresentation of people outside formal accommodation centers, and pre-existing humanitarian demands that already stretch available capacity.
