Sudan Crisis Risk Analysis

iMMAP Inc.
March 21, 2024
Risk Analysis


On April 15, 2023, fighting broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Since the October 2021 coup, SAF -led by General Abel-Fattah Al Burhan- and RSF -led by Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemedti - ruled Sudan. The unstable alliance between two groups, mostly fractured over the timeline of the dissolution of RSF troops and their integration into the army, ultimately collapse. Another key sticking point was control of economic sectors: SAF invested in large-scale agriculture, weapon and ammunition production, and banking, while the RSF focused on private sector investments, gold mining, and smuggling in Darfur.

In the first six months of the conflict, the Khartoum state was the site of the most intense fighting, with inter-ethnic violence escalating in South Darfur from July 2023. Within this period, three-quarters of the recorded 9,000 casualties were caused by bombings in Khartoum (DFS-iMMAP Inc. 31/10/2023). This conflict has left approximately 25 million people in need of humanitarian assistance. According to OCHA, over 6.3 million people have been displaced internally, while 1.8 million have crossed the border since April 15, 2023. With no signs of de-escalation, the conflict has spilled into areas previously considered safe. Following the capture of Wad Madani in December 2023, the RSF currently controls areas in both the western and central regions of the country, in addition to four out of five Darfuri states (DFS-iMMAP Inc. 28/02/2024). Soaring food and fuel prices exacerbate the humanitarian crisis, as a shrinking economy plunges many into poverty. Delivering aid remains extraordinarily difficult due to the protracted conflict, ongoing insecurity, theft of aid supplies, attacks on aid workers and responders, fuel shortages, and bureaucratic hurdles. These access constraints severely hamper both cross-line and cross-border humanitarian operations.

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