Ukrainian Crisis Situational Analysis

June 7, 2022
Situational Analysis

Executive Summary

Intense fighting is continuing around the cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, which should they fall would effectively put the whole of Luhansk oblast under Russian control. The conditions for residents that remain are dire, with near constant shelling and utilities such as water and electricity non-functional.

A clearer picture of refugee numbers is emerging as more Ukrainians register for Temporary Protection or similar national protection schemes. Increasing numbers of returns to Ukraine means that the estimated number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe is now put at 4.7 million, with roughly half having moved to countries other than those bordering Ukraine.

The number of Internally displaced persons within Ukraine has fallen for the first time and is now estimated to be around 7.134 million. This reduction is in part due to large scale returns to the northern region and to Kyiv. There are still evacuations and new displacements occurring, especially in the eastern region, but numbers are relatively low (in the thousands).

Physical constraints and security issues are threatening humanitarian actors and posing challenges in access to conflict-affected areas. Difficulties also remain in establishing “windows of silence” or arranging safe evacuation corridors for the worst affected populations.

In conflict affected areas of Ukraine access to medication remains challenging, especially in Eastern oblasts, with Southern and Northern oblasts also reporting poor access.
Access constraints are primarily due to lack of open or functioning pharmacies, lack of medications, and the high cost of medications. Access to specialised healthcare such as maternal, SRH and GBV services continues to be negatively impacted.

Multiple protection risks continue to be highlighted across all affected groups. In areas of conflict and of Russian occupation there are reports of arbitrary detention, torture, extra judicial killings, and GBV. For IDPs there are concerns of a greater risk of sexual exploitation and abuse as well as human trafficking as displaced women struggle to meet their basic needs due to loss of income and increasing prices.

There is also an increase in intimate partner violence. Third country nationals and minorities such as Roma and LGBTIQ+ people face additional barriers in accessing support as well as continued discrimination and increased protection risks.

The additional challenges faced by displaced older persons is putting them at increased risk. Older persons are more likely to have chronic illnesses requiring medication, they are more likely to face mobility issues or to have a disability. Many survive off very low incomes which are inadequate to meet their basic needs, especially as prices rise and they have limited access to their normal support networks.

Cash or financial assistance is the preferred assistance modality across all affected groups, although there is a lack of data for some of the worst affected areas in conflict zones.

Concerns are rising that unsustainable accommodation solutions in most of the neighbouring countries will put refugees at risk in the near future as housing availability is decreasing and financial government assistance will soon come to an end.

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