Ukrainian Crisis Situational Analysis

Impact Initiatives
October 6, 2022
Situational Analysis

Executive Summary


By early September, Ukrainian forces started recapturing areas of Kharkiv oblast, reaching the city of Lyman (Donetsk oblast) by the end of the month. The liberation of thousands of square kilometres resulted in the grim discovery of a mass grave in Izyum (containing of 447 bodies). Ukrainian forces also continue to make progress in the south towards the city of Kherson. Shelling and missile strikes continue to cause the majority of casualties with 1,222 civilian casualties registered by OHCHR in September.


The displacement picture saw a significant change with a decrease of 730,000 IDPs in September compared to the previous month (10.5% drop). However, the number of returnees remains relatively static. Conflict and safety remain the biggest push/pull factors. The majority of IDPs continue to originate from, and reside in, the eastern part of Ukraine. Latest survey data indicates a significant drop in the proportion of female IDPs, although they still represent 61% of the overall IDP population. The number of refugees from Ukraine continues to increase in Europe with over 7.6 million individuals having fled their country, a 600,000 people increase compared to the previous month.

Humanitarian Access

To protect civilians from the conflict, Ukrainian authorities have decided to conduct compulsory evacuations in oblasts close to the front line, namely Donetska, Kharkivska, Khersonska, Luhanska and Zaporizka oblasts. More than 80,000 people have been evacuated since August. On the humanitarian actors’ side, newly liberated areas were successfully reached with critical supplies, despite the fuel challenges and risks from Explosive Remnants of War (ERW). However, with winter approaching, access is threatened by potential frozen roads and difficult weather conditions.

Humanitarian Conditions

The conflict is still centred mostly in eastern and southern Ukraine and continues to put civilian lives at risk, leading to an increase in rights violations in September (including forced displacement and detention) and inherent trauma. In addition to the direct impact on people, damage to critical facilities and to civilian infrastructure continues to impact access to services for the population, as well as livelihood opportunities, notably due to business closures in conflict-affected areas. Livelihood coping strategies are heavily reported by 96% of IDPs and 91% of non-displaced. Elderly persons and persons with disabilities are amongst the most vulnerable groups, with many of them facing barriers to accessing finances (such as pensions) and thus to accessing services such as healthcare, but many also face barriers to humanitarian aid.

This is aggravated by inflation driving up the price of goods and services, including food, medicines and fuel. The lack of WASH facilities (due to damage and disruption) is increasing the risk of communicable diseases. Indeed, respiratory diseases have already increased in September and are likely to increase even more as winter approaches. Multisectoral risks are exacerbated with the coming of the winter, 12 million people are in need of shelter repair materials and thus vulnerable to the weather conditions (likely to drop to -20 degrees Celsius in some parts of the country), the issue further compounded by widespread electricity and heating disruption. Moreover, food consumption remains a challenge for seven million people even though the number of people reporting lack of food decreased compared to August. Positive news was the restarting of schools on September 1st; however, many are forced to use mixed modalities or distance learning due to insecurity.

Overall, needs are shifting with the onset of winter with utility bills, fuel and heating appliances becoming widespread needs across the affected groups. Whilst financial support remains the preferred option this should not mask issues around food security (close to half the households in all affected groups cited food as a use for financial assistance). Health needs remain high, as does the need for hygiene items (including menstrual hygiene products).

Report PDF