Ukrainian Crisis Situational Analysis Situation Report

Impact Initiatives
December 19, 2022
Situational Analysis

Executive Summary


In November, Ukrainian forces continued recapturing areas of southern and eastern oblasts, notably Kherson, city from which the Russian forces retreated on November 11. This has led to the liberation of approximately 4,300 square kilometres of territory since September 2022. Shelling and missile strikes continue to cause the majority of casualties with 688 civilian casualties registered by OHCHR in November, which is less than in October (over 1,000). Heavy shelling along with missile and drone strikes was experienced throughout November, targeting energy infrastructure and civilian facilities, and leading to widespread disruption of energy supply with millions of citizens being deprived from electricity and water at times during the month.


Displacement figures have continued to mostly follow a downward trend since August with a decrease of 626,000 IDPs in October compared to the previous month. Among the almost six million IDPs, 680,000 individuals have been newly displaced within the last 30 days. The number of returnees has also reduced by 700,000 compared to last month. Across Ukraine, est. 785,000 IDPs currently plan to integrate in their current location.
Conflict and safety remain the biggest push/pull factor, although family reunification, access to employment and services and accommodation are also commonly cited. The majority of IDPs continue to originate from, and reside in, the eastern part of Ukraine. The number of refugees from Ukraine is static in Europe with over 7.8 million individuals having fled the country.

Humanitarian Access

Insecurity in eastern and southern Ukraine continues to hamper humanitarian access in some conflict-affected areas. It is notably the case of Zaporizhzhia and Vovchansk which have been hard to impossible to reach in November. Physical constraints such as damage to roads and contamination with Explosive Remnants of War (ERW) further degrades the ability of partners to assist people in need, this is particularly the case in Kharkiv. In addition, persons with disabilities and older people seem to face particular challenges when trying to access assistance, due to lack of mobility and a lack of sufficient aid. However, on a positive note, newly accessible areas have been able to receive assistance, notably cash and winter items.

Humanitarian Conditions

Livelihoods: Lack of employment and low incomes are still driving humanitarian need within Ukraine as households struggle to manage. High inflation, displacement, and additional costs due to the conflict are putting stress on household incomes. The October IOM GPS (round 10) found that 29% of non-displaced households and 24% of the displaced households report incomes of UAH 5,000 or less, this is around UAH 1700 less than the national minimum wage per month. Older persons reliant on state benefits, particularly older women (who may have made less contributions) are of particular concern as the statutory minimum payment level is unlikely to cover even basic needs. Some households report cutting back on food expenditure or borrowing money to buy basic necessities.

Food Security: According to the latest WFP online dashboard, 10.4 million people are living with insufficient food consumption in Ukraine (an increase of 1.73 million people since last month). This ties in with data from the IOM GPS (round 10) found that 29% of assessed IDP households, 21% of non-IDP households and 18% of returnee households reported a need for food assistance. The situation seems particularly acute in newly accessible areas with recent survey’s from Khersonska oblast indicating that many families have had limited access to food for several weeks, (echoing findings from NAAs in Kharkivska). Older people are particularly at risk, especially with the onset of winter and continued high inflation driving up costs whilst they have limited low income. Many older persons report relying on negative coping mechanisms such reducing the quality of food consumed or cutting back on their overall food intake.

Health: Health facilities continue to be damaged by the conflict, reducing the quality of available care, with the worst affected oblasts being in the east and south. Overall, 715 attacks were verified by WHO on health care in Ukraine in 2022, representing more than 70% of all attacks on health-care infrastructure reported worldwide this year. With the start of the winter, the rise of contagious diseases and the worsening of chronic illnesses threaten the health of the population, especially for those living conflictaffected areas and attacks on energy infrastructure may drive up the use of solid fuel increasing the risk of respiratory diseases. Lack of medicines and access to health services continue to be of concern with the situation in newly accessible areas such as Kherson oblast particularly difficult. Older people are continuously flagged as more at risk in terms of health issues, being more prone to chronic illnesses and facing reduced mobility and thus more difficult access to healthcare.

Protection: In OHCHR’s most recent sobering report, HRMMU reported documenting 86 cases of Conflict Related Sexual Violence (CRSV) against women, men, and girls, (since 24 February 2022). Cases included rape, gang rape, forced nudity and forced public stripping, sexual torture, and sexual abuse. OHCHR also stated that human rights violations and war crimes remain among the main tolls of the war with widespread concern over forced deportations. Protection monitoring has identified the most frequently reported protection risks as exposure to shelling and armed violence, mine contamination, family separation, restrictions on freedom of movement, lack of identity documents and lack of access to education. However, protection services have been disrupted since the beginning of the conflict, resulting in some civilians not being able to access adequate protection responses.

Shelter: Damage to residential property continued during the month of November with widespread destruction also reported throughout newly accessible areas of Khersonska oblast. The October IOM GPS (round 10) found that close to half (45%) of IDP respondents reported their habitual residence was damaged in the conflict, and out of these almost all (94%) cited lack of financial resources as a major reason for not going ahead with repairs. Attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in the last month continues to disrupt lives in Ukraine and put many at risk. With 64% of respondents to a recent survey of older people and persons with disabilities reporting that their pensions/social benefits are inadequate to meet their basic needs, the concern is many older persons will not be able to properly heat their homes or repair any damage. The need for heating appliances and solid fuels remains prominent and extremely crucial throughout Ukraine as energy facilities sustain significant damage, forcing households to rely on alterative heating systems.

WASH: Continuing missile strikes against power infrastructure combined with widespread destruction in settlements close to the frontline (Including newly accessible areas) is resulting in millions of people losing access to water. In some newly accessible areas, there are reports of households using wells and, in some cases, collecting water from puddles. There continues to be a widespread need amongst IDP populations for hygiene items and across all population groups for menstrual hygiene products.
Finally at collective sites there are still some problems such as a lack of sufficient bathing facilities and gender segregated facilities.

Education: Destruction of education infrastructure continues with 2790 education institutions have suffered bombing and shelling with 337 of them having been completely destroyed since the beginning of the Russian incursion. However, the recent missile attacks are taking a significant toll on education provision. Where students are reliant on online learning (43% of schools are running exclusively distance education programmes) the resultant blackouts and loss of internet services are preventing many from studying. Data from an assessment of tertiary institutions also highlights the impact on budgets with many institutions requiring funds to repair damage as well as having to host IDPs or devote facilities for other humanitarian purposes. In addition, some colleges and universities lack the equipment and technical capacity to provide online education to all, with students with Special Educational Needs (SEN) students particularly affected.

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