Ukrainian Crisis Situational Analysis

Impact Initiatives
June 20, 2023
Situational Analysis

Executive Summary


During May there were limited operations along the frontline as both sides awaited Ukraine’s planned offensive, although Russian forces claimed to have finally taken control of the Donetsk city of Bakhmut.

Reports now indicate that Ukrainian forces have launched counter offensive operations. May and early June saw regular missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities with Kyiv in particular a target.

Many missiles and drones have been intercepted by Ukrainian air defences, however, there have still been multiple civilian casualties because of the strikes. From 24 February 2022 to 4 June 2023, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) recorded 24,425 civilian casualties in the country: 8,983 killed and 15,442 injured.

Communities close to the frontline continue to bear the brunt of Russian attacks which include shelling, ground-launched missiles mortar and small arms fire.There have also been reports of casualties in NonGovernment Controlled Areas (NGCA). Elsewhere, anti-Putin Russian groups launch a series of attacks into the Russian oblast of Belgorod.


Current estimates indicate there are roughly 5.088 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Ukraine and 8.255 million Ukrainians registered as refugees in Europe. The number of those who have returned to their area of origin after displacement (both refugees and IDPs) is approximately 4.757 million.

Note that new population estimates have been used to inform IDP/Returnee numbers, so it is not possible to be sure of the current trends. The eastern region continues to be both the largest place of origin of IDPs and host to the largest number of IDPs. Conflict and employment opportunities are the main drivers for displacement and returns, with the wish to reunite with family or friends also a key factor in determining the intended location for both displacement and returnee households. Major cities such as Lyiv, Kharkiv and Mykolaiv continue to act as transit centres for newly displaced and those returning home. Many households wish to return home but only intend to do so once fighting has ceased in their area or the conflict has ended.

Humanitarian Access

Access to frontline areas remains challenging mainly due to insecurity, including the presence of mines and unexploded devices, and due to the ongoing shelling. Partners, local authorities and local actors continue to assist the populations wherever access is granted. Damage to infrastructure and the price of transportation are also access barriers for both the humanitarian actors and the populations. Many people remaining in frontline areas are older people and persons with disabilities - who are more likely to have mobility issues - therefore making their access to assistance and services more difficult. Access remains limited to NGCAs affected by flooding after the Nova Kakhovka Dam breach on 06 June.

Humanitarian Conditions

Food Security and Livelihoods: The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam and hydroelectric power plant has impacted the food security and livelihoods of both those who live in the areas flooded and populations dependent upon the dam for water and electricity. Food remains one of the most reported needs across all geographical areas, and population groups, with many households adopting consumption-based strategies to cope with food shortages. People with mobility issues, including older persons, face more difficulties in accessing food and livelihoods, as many rely on insufficient income from modest government pensions, subsidies and payments.

Although the overall price of the JMMI food basket remained fairly stable in April compared to the previous month, financial barriers remain a major issue in preventing households accessing sufficient food. Employment continues to be highlighted as a need amongst displaced and returnee populations, and recent data shows it is a driver for displaced persons to return to their areas of origin.

Health: The collapse of the Nova Kakhovka Dam in the southern part of Ukraine has resulted in numerous healthrelated risks for the population, included water prone diseases, pollution, due to chemical leaks and a lack of health services. Health facilities located in conflict-affected areas continue to suffer the most damage with a lack of specialized services, movement restrictions and the lack of staff hindering access to health services for those in these areas. Those with limited mobility particularly affected. As well as these factors, the unaffordability of medicine a prevalent issue across the country.

Prices of health care services have also increased in the last year, with a recorded 12% increase nationally. The conflict has limited the capacity to implement vaccination activities, resulting in UKRAINIAN CRISIS | Situational Analysis | 20 June 2023 3/26 continued low vaccination rates which were already present before the escalation.

Protection: Protection related concerns remain prominent across Ukraine, especially for vulnerable population groups who continue to report instances of discrimination, threats, torture and violence.

International Organisations also report an increased presence of gender-based violence in Ukraine, with conditions in some collective centres a cause for concern. There is a growing need for legal aid in Ukraine amidst reports of violations of people’s rights with IDPs are consistently reporting this issue more than other population groups. Ongoing hostilities and the presence of mines and other explosive remnants of war continue to restrain people’s freedom of movement and put people at risk with Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts in particular being heavily contaminated by mines.
Shelter: Flooding caused by the breaching of the Nova Kakhovka has raised significant shelter related concerns in the area with some residents reluctant to leave their homes despite the damage. Elsewhere in Ukraine, conflict related destruction of residential houses continued throughout the months of May and June.

Data on rental prices for one-bedroom apartments shows a continuing rise in rents across the country with Zakarpatska reporting the highest hike. In conflict affected areas efforts are being made to repair damage to houses but households have reported that progress is slow, with limited reconstruction and rehabilitation. Older persons continue to be flagged as a particular group facing shelter related issues.

WASH: Destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Dam has directly impacted 17,000 people with tens of thousands more at risk and a further one million people reliant on the Kakhovka Reservoir for their water supply. Clean drinking water and hygiene kits WASH are both critical needs. Damage to critical WASH and energy infrastructure continues to disrupt water supplies to many frontline communities, with challenges in accessing drinking water a critical concern in some areas of Donetska and Kharkivska oblasts as well as for some settlements in inaccessible areas. Although hygiene Items remain widely available across most of Ukraine, there are some shortages in specific areas with the situation in certain frontline settlements particularly acute; Returnee and IDP households also report challenges in accessing hygiene products.

Education: As more schools meet required safety standards (such as having appropriate air raid shelters), the number of students returning face-to-face learning to is rising with in-person schooling increasing by 11% since September 2022. However, education institutions continue to be directly impacted by the conflict with 3290 educational institutions reported damaged by bombing and shelling with 262 of them having been destroyed completely. The devastating impact of Ukraine's conflict on children's education is evident in Mykolaiv oblast where the widespread damage and destruction of kindergartens and schools has led to the closure of many educational institutions. Children contend with numerous obstacles as they are forced to continue their education online.

Report PDF