Ukrainian Crisis Situational Analysis

April 23, 2023
Situational Analysis

Executive Summary

Large-scale offensive operations in eastern Ukraine are still ongoing, with Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts experiencing widespread civilian casualties and destruction of infrastructure. Heavy bombardment of many cities such as Kharkiv and Mariupol continues. Ukrainian forces continued operations in the north of the country during the first weeks of April amid the withdrawal of Russian forces. By April 8, Russian troops had fully pulled out of the Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy regions. While the security situation is relatively stable in Western Ukraine, the first civilian deaths have been recorded in Lviv on April 18. As intense fighting and airstrikes continue to cause civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure across the country. The duration of martial law in Ukraine was extended until 25 May 2022.

There are an estimated 7.7 million internally displaced persons in Ukraine. Evacuations from the eastern oblasts have pushed the number up. Displacement to neighbouring countries continues to rise, reaching over 5 million. There is a slight increase in the rate of displacement compared to the previous two weeks, though still slower than during the first weeks of the conflict. Conversely some IDPs and refugees are returning.

As fighting is intensifying efforts have been made to evacuate the civilian population from Ukraine’s eastern Luhanska and Donetska oblasts, however, continuous shelling is posing difficulties. While some evacuations are taking place, they are often through private transport. The start of a new Russian offensive in the east will also likely reduce access to populations in the region. Lack of respect for humanitarian corridors and failure to implement “windows of silence” continue to hamper access to the area’s most heavily affected by conflict. In the north of Ukraine and around Kyiv areas now back under Ukrainian control are heavily contaminated by mines and UXOs.

The food security situation continues to deteriorate across Ukraine. Immediate food needs are reported in conflict-affected areas and in areas hosting IDPs, the disruption in food production and delivery challenges due to access constraints are some of the reasons driving up the need. The lack of income and disruption in financial services is also contributing to the rise in need for basic necessities. Hostilities-related damages and access constraints have left around 1.4 million people without running water across eastern Ukraine. Water access in IDP-hosting oblasts is relatively better, however, there are hygiene needs.

Access to education remains limited in conflict-affected areas. Both IDP and refugee children also face challenges to accessing online education services or to integrate into host country education systems while at the same time dealing with the psychological impact of conflict and displacement.

In conflict affected areas, access to health services and medications continue to impact the majority of the population. Access to services is extremely limited in Izium, Mariupol, Popasna and Rubizhne. In IDP-hosting areas, among the primary unmet needs reported was access to treatment for long-term health problems.

Hostilities have damaged or destroyed hundreds of residential houses, leaving many civilians living in substandard conditions sheltering from attacks. In some IDP-hosting areas, there has been a reported rise in rent prices.

While immediate needs of refugees in hosting countries are relatively met by humanitarian and government response, longer term needs are becoming more of a concern. With refugees entering neighbouring countries since the end of February there is now a significant strain on resources and services, further exacerbated by rising inflation.

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