Ukrainian Crisis Situational Analysis

Impact Initiatives
September 23, 2022
Situational Analysis

Executive Summary


If Ukrainian forces can hold the significant areas of territory they are reported to have recaptured in recent weeks, or indeed have continued success, it is likely that more areas will be accessible for humanitarian assistance. Reclaimed areas have been characterised by widespread UXO and mine contamination as well as significant damage to civilian infrastructure impacting utilities such as heating, gas, electricity and telecoms as well as the loss of many civilian homes. In addition, attacks on Ukrainian urban centres continue to be a danger with Kharkiv city reporting attacks on power and water supplies causing a blackout for large sections of the city.


The displacement picture remains volatile with IDP numbers rising by 330,000 over the last month.
The situation is somewhat confused by the number of returnees, currently estimated at just over six million, however many of these are likely to be temporary in nature. Conflict and safety remain the biggest push/pull factors, but access to services and employment also feature highly. The largest number of IDPs now reside in the eastern-macro region, which is also where the majority of IDPs originate (61%). This will place a lot of strain on areas close to the conflict front lines, areas that are also furthest to reach in terms of supplies and logistics. The average IDP household size has been reducing, perhaps as some family members return, but the number of vulnerable groups across the IDP population remains significant.

Humanitarian Access

Humanitarian access is heavily constrained by conflict in the east and south of the country with much of the assistance being provided to front line areas by government workers and national NGOs.
Access to NGCAs is severely limited and there is little information on the humanitarian situation in cities such as Mariupol and Kherson. Evacuations from areas close to the frontline in the east have been proceeding, however over 330,000 residents are estimated to remain in Donetska oblast.
Logistical challenges are another barrier with widespread destruction to the road and rail network disrupting supply routes. In addition, the high cost of fuel is particularly impacting local NGOs.

Humanitarian Conditions

The conflict in Ukraine has had major impacts on humanitarian conditions. Damages and fear of violence have led close to seven million of individuals to flee their homes while hundreds of others have remained in conflict-affected areas, facing restricted access to goods, services and assistance and risking protection incidents. At least 5,663 civilians have died since February and 8,055 were wounded, including 365 children killed and 623 wounded.

The stress coupled with the trauma have left an estimated 15 million people in need of psychological care throughout the country.

Moreover, with large-scale migration within the country, including many trying to return to their area of origin, transmission of communicable diseases is facilitated, resulting in several outbreaks. The lack of healthcare services, the crowded and poor conditions of shelter and the lack of access to safe water are worsening the risks of diseases. Six million people are estimated to be having limited or reduced access to piped water.
Costs of services and goods are also putting pressure on the households and leading them to adopt negative coping strategies. By July, over 35% of families reported using food-based coping mechanisms at or above crisis levels. Both the costs of food (28% annual increase of food basket) and of medicines (between 10 and 25% since January) are putting at risk the health of families who may suffer from nutrition problems and from untreated noncommunicable diseases.

As winter approaches, increased risks are expected to appear for vulnerable households, with heightened needs of heating supplies and electricity, notably in conflict-affected areas and for displaced persons struggling to find appropriate accommodation before winter.

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