Ukrainian Crisis Situational Analysis

Impact Initiatives
February 24, 2023
Situational Analysis

Executive Summary


Heavy fighting continues around Bakhmut in the Donetsk region as Russian forces seek control of the city following their capture of the settlement of Soledar on 12 January. Sporadic attacks and shelling by both sides typifies the contact line which stretches from Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts in the south up to Kharkiv oblast in the north-east. Waves of missile and drone continue attacks have been continuously reported in January, targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and impacting energy supplies, heating systems and the availability of piped water, as well as causing further civilian casualties. Since the escalation of the conflict in February 2022, OHCHR recorded 18,817 civilian casualties in the country including 7,155 killed and 11,662 injured.


Refugee figures have increased slightly over the past month with over 8.054 million individuals recorded across Europe. The number of returnees has also increased with about 5.562 million returns registered (both IDPs and refugees). IDP numbers continue their downward trend into the new year and since August, with a drop of 562K by mid - January, however there were a reported 375K individuals newly displaced within the last 30 days. For the first time returnees now out-number those internally displaced (5.352 million). Security concerns remain a key push factor in many settlements close to the contact line, but livelihoods opportunities and the poor state of the local economy are also cited reasons for continued displacement, although lack of funds may also be a barrier to migration. Re-joining family or friends is still likely to be the biggest pull factor for returnees.

Humanitarian Access

Safety concerns and administrative challenges are major constraints to humanitarian access. Partners face such challenge in 94% of raions in eastern and southern Ukraine. According to the HNO released by OCHA, 4.3 million people in need of humanitarian assistance live in districts where humanitarian access is high to extremely restricted. Moreover, since the escalation of the war, no inter-agency humanitarian convoys have been able to cross between government-controlled and Russian-controlled areas. Explosive devices continue to constitute a main threat to both civilians and humanitarian staff, restricting movement all of actors willing to offer or receive assistance.

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