Ukrainian Crisis Situational Analysis

March 24, 2022
Situational Analysis

Executive Summary

OHCHR have recorded more than 2,500 civilian casualties since the start of the military offensive on Ukraine, however the actual figure is likely to be considerably higher. Mariupol, Kharkiv and other urban centres have seen heavy use of explosive weapons with a wide impact area, including shelling from heavy artillery and multiple-launch rocket systems, and missile and airstrikes. These weapons have hit residential areas causing widespread devastation with hospitals and schools amongst those buildings damaged or destroyed.

It is estimated that 12 million (30%) people inside Ukraine will need relief and protection. Eastern Ukraine is the hardest hit area of Ukraine with the most pressing needs, recording nearly 45% of all civilian casualties across the country so far. Humanitarian needs are also high in the northern and southern regions of Ukraine.

6.5 million people have been internally displaced putting tremendous pressure on cities and towns in the west of the country. Another 2.2 million people have expressed the willingness to leave their place of residence but cannot do so due to insecurity, lack of money or not knowing where they can go. A further 3.7 million people have fled to neighbouring countries, the majority of whom are women and children, with the largest numbers arriving in Poland (2.1 million).

The most critical needs are those of civilians in trapped in encircled cities or in areas under constant bombardment. Residents face severe shortages of food, water and a lack of heating and electricity. There have been many attempts to establish safe civilian evacuation corridors to transport civilians to safety or provide a “silent window” in which to deliver humanitarian supplies. However, many have failed to materialise with convoys being shelled or attacked. In addition, 300,000 people in the city of Kherson which is allegedly under Russian control, are running out of food and medical supplies, and unable to evacuate.

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