Ukrainian Crisis Situational Analysis

Impact Initiatives
March 27, 2023
Situational Analysis

Executive Summary


Civilian casualties continue to rise, although the month-to-month numbers are following a downward trend. Since the escalation of the conflict in February 2022, to 12 March 2023, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) recorded 21,965 civilian casualties in the country: 8,231 killed and 13,734 injured with 589 civilian casualties were recorded for the month of February (138 killed and 451 injured). Fighting centres around the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts with the city of Bakhmut continuing to be the focus of both Russian and Ukrainian efforts. Shelling, mortar fire, drone and rockets attacks continue along the front line. After a lull in missile attacks through the latter half of February, March 9th saw a widespread attack targeting of energy infrastructure as eight oblasts were hit by missiles and drones.


With no new IOM GPS report during the data collection period, IDP numbers remain relatively unchanged with a small increase in refugee numbers recorded in Europe. With returnees now outnumbering IDPs for the first time since the start of the conflict it is interesting to note some of the push/pull factors for return and challenges to local integration. Availability of housing was highlighted as the second biggest factor influencing returns (after security concerns), either encouraging return (where it was available) or discouraging it where it was not. For those who have given up on returning to their areas of origin, the widespread destruction to civilian infrastructure was given as a main reason.
Lack of services, jobs and the destruction of infrastructure also account for those who have returned deciding to move again. Data also indicates that many “returns” are intentionally only for a short time period. Local integration appears to be more challenging for those in collective centres than IDPs in private accommodation with those lacking local language skills and the Roma community highlighted as facing particular barriers.

Humanitarian Access

Safety concerns, particularly involving mines and explosive remnants of war are the main barriers in terms of humanitarian access. Incidents involving a direct attack on humanitarian personnel and infrastructure have declined but have no ceased completely. Hard-to-reach areas near the front line and area not under the control of the Ukrainian Government (NGCA) are the most concerning with some evacuations carried out including from Bakhmut. Overall, there are some groups that struggle to access aid more than others with older persons, LGBTQI+ individuals, Roma and Third Country Nationals and those in rural areas outside of collective sites citing barriers to accessing aid and information about humanitarian assistance.

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