Ukrainian Crisis Situational Analysis

Impact Initiatives
August 31, 2023
Situational Analysis

Executive Summary


As of 30 July 2023, Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has recorded 26,015 civilian casualties in the country: 9,369 killed and 16,646 injured. 748 civilian casualties were recorded for the month of July itself (143 killed and 605 injured), a slight decrease compared to May as numbers continue to vary from month to month. Most of these casualties were caused using explosive weapons with wide area effects, including shelling from heavy artillery, multiple launch rocket systems, missiles, and air strikes. Ukrainian forces continued their counteroffensive in July, with marginal gains on the frontlines. After the Russian withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative in mid-July, Russian forces launched consecutive missile and drone attacks on Odesa port infrastructure. Communities across the frontline continue to bear the brunt of Russian attacks leading to significant damage to civilian infrastructure.


As of August 1, there are approximately 5.1 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) within Ukraine and a further 6.231 million Ukrainian refugees recorded globally of which 5.873 million are in Europe. This number has seen a large drop compared to the beginning of June although there have been some changes in the way displacement numbers and population figures are calculated. The average duration of displacement for IDPs inside Ukraine is 352 days, however roughly 150,000 people were newly displaced within the last 30 days.
The oblasts which are closer to the frontlines have also seen a significant increase in the number of registered IDPs in the past two months as the east continues to be the largest place of origin of IDPs and hosts the largest number of the population group. Furthermore, a large number of returns are recorded in Kyiv city, Kviska and Kharkivska, both people coming from abroad and within Ukraine.
Conflict and employment opportunities continue to be the main drivers for displacement and returns with the wish to reunite with family or friends also remaining a key factor in determining the intended location for both displacement and returnee households. Nearly 1.04 million current IDPs have stated an intention to go back to their region of origin.

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